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Around SBN: Relegation Simulation: Rewriting College Football History

A Pricing Comparison: Kaka Vs. Javier Pastore

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I'm going to make some assumptions in this post, and I'd like to make them clear from the outset.

  1. Figures reported by the media for transfer costs and salaries are accurate.
  2. Kaka will not accept a pay cut of more than 20%. This is arbitrary, so if you have a better figure, by all means let me know. The idea that he'll leave much more than that on the table strikes me as a little bit bizarre, however. People aren't generally inclined to simply give up millions of euros without other compensation.
  3. I'm using 0.87 euros to the pound, the rough exchange rate as of time of posting.

As we're all well aware, a transfer fee does not include the full cost of a player. Any glance at a club's books will show you the impact of wages on their finances, and ignoring said wages is immensely foolish. So, when looking at the cost per year of a player, we should spread out their transfer fee over their career with the team and add that figure to their yearly salary. Let's do that exercise with, say, Javier Pastore and Kaka.

Star-divide

Javier Pastore (PSG)

Transfer fee: €43M (£37.4M).
Wages: €4.5M/yr (£3.9M).
Contract Length: Four years.

Pastore, of course, was overpriced at €43M from Palermo, which is presumably why he will not be calling Chelsea home over the next few years. It's disappointing, but good on the Blues for making an economically rational decision after the Fernando Torres fiasco. Anyway, let's look at his true cost to Paris Saint-Germain. £37.4M for the transfer fee means £9.4M per season plus £3.9M in wages every year, which gives us...

£13.3M per year.

Kaka (Chelsea, Possibly)

Transfer fee: £25M
Wages: £6.9M.yr*
Contract length: Four years.

*Wages are 10M a year at Madrid, with four years left on deal. This assumes a 20% pay cut and no shortening of contract, which he'd never, ever sign.

Pretty easy here. £25M over four years is £6.3M a year plus his projected wages at £6.9M for a grand total of...

£13.2M per year

So, yeah. Pastore might be stupid money, but Kaka at £25M probably isn't any smarter. And that's not even going into Pastore's resale/resign value, which either recoups some of the cost or allows you to spread out the transfer fee even further in terms of looking at overall cost per year. At 29, Kaka doesn't offer you that. In other words, the two have the same actual price tag affixed, but only Pastore allows a team to mitigate any of that expense.

Honestly, no matter how good Kaka once was, he's too old, too expensive, and too injury prone for the price for him to come to Chelsea to make any sense. Pastore is very likely to be better than a healthy Kaka within two years anyway, so in order for the deal to be good for the Blues Real Madrid would have to accept a transfer fee of... what, £10M? That's not on the table, so any deal for Kaka to come to Stamford Bridge shouldn't be either.

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Great post Graham

That really hits home on how much this deal really wouldn’t make sense. If the price wasn’t so high and he wasn’t so injury prone I actually wouldn’t be against the deal, but as it stands right now I’m very against it.

by Noleforever9399 on Aug 1, 2011 7:32 AM BST reply actions  

good analysis

How about applying the same concept to Modric?

Reported wages on offer? £80k per week (£4.2m per year)
Transfer fee? £30m to £35m
Let’s assume a 4 year contract as above and a annnual cost of £12.9m per year

What do you reckon?

by psyman on Aug 1, 2011 9:41 AM BST reply actions  

Great article

Actually gives a proper comparison between the prices of the two rather than just the transfer fee. My votes are still to sign Hazard or Nasri as they can play on the right as a wing or centrally dependant on what is required.

by Lampard8 on Aug 1, 2011 11:39 AM BST reply actions  

I agree

No Kaka for me, it does baffle me though how we have NEVER been linked with Honda from any articles I’ve seen I mean for me he fits the bill can play pretty much anywhere in the front 3 and in CAM/CM/DM good at set pieces.

Most importantly we are trying to establish ourselves in Asia no? so an Asian superstar who fits the bill wouldn’t make sense no? We have had dealings with CSKA before his price tag wouldn’t be THAT high and shirt sales would probably pay back his transfer fee, just a thought though.

(I mean he works on FM 2011 atleast!)

by Adeyo on Aug 1, 2011 12:28 PM BST reply actions  

He doesn't work only on FM 2011

I’ve watched some of his games in ESPN Brasil and he’s usually the best player on the field, with beautiful assists to Vágner Love and Doumbia, and organizing the midfield. The problem is, the quality of his opponents is saddening, and maybe the fact that he plays so damn well in the RPL is due to the poor overall level of the athletes in Russia.

And I know Abramovich is somehow connected to CSKA Moscow, as people started to complain about his “lack of patriotism” after buying Chelsea. I do think that if the CSKA succeeds in the Champions League (something like getting in the quarter-finals) with Honda anchoring them, like he’s been doing all season long, Abramovich will easily get him. And the same could be said about Doumbia and Love.

1970 - 1984 - 2010

"Ignorant people are easier to control"

by trOOly on Aug 1, 2011 2:19 PM BST up reply actions  

I think people underestimate the Russian league...

According to the UEFA Coefficient (calculated based on performance of clubs from a given country in the Champions League and Europa League), Russia has the 7th best league in Europe; ahead of countries like the Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium.

It’s not a perfect measure by any means, as it really just indicates that the top 6 Russian teams are better than the top 6 Dutch teams, but not quite as good as the top 6 Portuguese teams; there could well be a huge gulf between the teams at the top and the rest of the league – although the same can be said of pretty much every other league in Europe so maybe it’s not that big of a deal.

by deg0ey on Aug 1, 2011 4:50 PM BST up reply actions  

But I don't think one Russian team could be put in the top 10 in Europe

Maybe not even top 20. The disparity between CSKA and the rest of the teams is astounding. Anzhi is trying to get there, offering huge amounts of money to some veterans and wonderkids hoping that some of those accepts playing in Russia (they were one of the teams which offered to pay Neymar’s release fee), and I have no doubts that there’ll be more powerful teams in Russia as they get more sugar daddies.

I’ll start believing in Russian soccer when one of their teams manage to reach at least the quarter-final of the Champions League or if it reachs the Europa League finals. Until then, I won’t put my money on them.

1970 - 1984 - 2010

"Ignorant people are easier to control"

by trOOly on Aug 1, 2011 8:32 PM BST up reply actions  

CSKA made the quarters in 2010

Zenit St. Petersburg won the 2008 Europa League (then called the UEFA Cup). CSKA won in 2005. To steal a phrase from the Mets marketing dept…Ya gotta believe

by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 1, 2011 9:41 PM BST up reply actions  

meh

europa is put on equal footing with the champions league for coefficient calculations, which isn’t the best of ideas..

by Al Benson on Aug 2, 2011 4:31 AM BST up reply actions  

UEFA Cup back then was irrelevant to most teams

And to be honest, still is. Most of then put mixed or B-squads to play there; only second grade teams like Porto and those two Russian teams really cared about it. A reformulation is needed; maybe giving a spot to the champion in the group stage of UCL, or one spot to the champion and to the runner-up, or something exotic: giving a spot to the champion, and to the 3rd place to make the 3rd place dispute more interesting.

1970 - 1984 - 2010

"Ignorant people are easier to control"

by trOOly on Aug 2, 2011 5:03 AM BST up reply actions  

what if real madrid accepted a bid of £18-20 million for kaka?

if zhirkov is really going for £13 million, then this transfer would reflect a relatively minimal loss. granted, no resell value, but this is a guy who has won two champions leagues and could easily slot into the right side of the attack besides torres. his form was great in the spring and he has looked good all summer. he is expensive for sure, but it is not my money, and i feel like abramovich knows exactly what he is doing with the upcoming FFP rules. if interest in kaka is real, no one can convince me that he wouldn’t improve our attack. who cares if he is old? sometimes you have to roll the dice. i think mceachran would probably learn a lot training next to him everyday as well. it seems like i am in the minority here but i’d love to see it happen

by jags 1981 on Aug 2, 2011 3:03 AM BST reply actions  

*one champions league

i forgot that he wasn’t at milan in 2003

by jags 1981 on Aug 2, 2011 3:08 AM BST up reply actions  

Isn't McEachran learning already from Lampard?

McEachran will most likely fill in Lampard’s spot. Paying £20 mil. for a guy to probably blow his knee during the season and to tutor a wonderkid isn’t worthy. It’s like Barça trying to get Fábregas for £30+ mil. to put him on bench, as Thiago will most likely take his spot as a regular player.

1970 - 1984 - 2010

"Ignorant people are easier to control"

by trOOly on Aug 2, 2011 5:08 AM BST up reply actions  

'Not my money' is a really weak argument

it’s a resource for Chelsea to use, and if they spend it in silly ways they can’t use it on someone else.

by Graham MacAree on Aug 2, 2011 8:35 PM BST up reply actions  

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