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Reframing The Debate: Defence Vs. Attack At Wigan Athletic

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So Chelsea drew 1-1 against Wigan Athletic after blowing a late lead thanks to some dodgy play by certain players who will remain nameless, and that's sparked off a debate about Andre Villas-Boas tactics in the match. Ignoring the introduction of Salomon Kalou at halftime, which was pretty undeniably sensible unless irrationally hating everything Kalou is your bag, the major talking point was a pair of defence-minded substitutions which saw Juan Mata and Daniel Sturridge withdrawn to protect a 1-0 lead.

The debate hasn't really managed to progress beyond the 'You smell' 'NO YOU SMELL' state as it is, and while that's partially because the Fernando-Torres-needs-to-play-more-crowd is pissed off that he didn't see the pitch it's mostly to do with the fact that as currently framed, there's no single fact strong enough to convince anyone on either side to change their position.

Star-divide

And that's where maths(!) comes in.

Those who've been around this blog for a while are pretty familiar with the framework of win probability (WPA), which basically gives us the likelihood of one average team beating another average team in any given situation thanks to the magic of statistics. With a few tweaks, we can adjust it to account for strength disparity between teams, so let's do the maths that will get us there.

Chelsea score 47 percent more goals than the average Premier League team and concede percent fewer. Wigan score 35 percent fewer goals than the average Premier League team and concede 30 percent more. With home field advantage counting for about a half-goal swing, some basic arithmetic gets us to an average score of about 2.5-1 in Chelsea's favour. And now we can plug that into our WPA framework at the time the first defensive substitution was made.

In the 66th minute with the score at 1-0, Chelsea had an 86% chance of winning, a 12% chance of drawing and a 2% chance of losing. A second goal at that point would have been worth a grand total of 0.26 points. A Wigan goal in the 67th minute, on the other hand, would have cost -0.94. What can we conclude about the tactical state of the game at that point? It's easy: Preventing a goal was more than three times as important as scoring another one.

Basically, in order to argue that an attacking substitution was required, you'd have to imagine that the last striker left on the bench in Fernando Torres would have made it 3.6 times the difference that John Obi Mikel would have on the defence. Considering that Torres has scored five goals in his Chelsea career, that strikes me as implausible.

So, if you're on the 'that substitution was crazy' train (and similar rules actually apply to the Malouda switch, although by that point we're looking at an impact differential of almost six to one) you basically have to assert that the attacking team you'd have wanted to run out is at least 3.5 times better at doing its job than the defensive unit that was actually deployed. Have fun with that.

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I am not tottaly convinced with your argument

But it’s a great video to shut up the guys disliking the substitutions.

by Archit Arya on Dec 19, 2011 6:43 PM GMT reply actions  

Blinding me with science!

On a slight tangent, I’ve seen now in multiple places claiming that AVB was showing a “lack of respect” towards Wigan with defensive subs aimed to protect that 1-0 lead. How on god’s green Earth does that EVER make any sense?

Especially in light of the listless performance, shoring up the defense with a proper holder, if anything, showed (undue) respect for Wigan’s attacking threat (which may or may not have existed, despite playing with 2 forwards).

by DPeezy on Dec 19, 2011 6:54 PM GMT reply actions  

Trust me I love bringing statistics into it

But it becomes really hard to argue taking the player off in the best form of his life, and probably also best form in the squad over the past few weeks (sturridge) and leaving on another who’s work rate devolved to next to nothing as the game went on (drogba). I’m not going to do the Torres/Drogba argument because Torres’s work rate isn’t always there either. I know the whole defensive header argument but I think it was more important to have some semblance of pressure and the threat of a counter attack to prevent possession in our third.

The other difficult point is in arguing that Fernando Torres (or an attacking minded player) wouldn’t provide any defensive value. Ignoring the idiotic red early in the season there has to be some value placed on a forward pressing high/winning back possession/keeping possession/ occupying defenders.

I guess my point is just that it’s not an exact science, I didn’t have a problem with the tactics I just think that based on current form Sturridge probably should have stayed on. I would have liked to see Romeu remain on too but I understand that one. It’s somewhat disappointing that we didn’t have the confidence that we would break them down without that. (be mindful that if Ramires was healthy/playing there’s a good chance that wouldn’t have to be made since we probably would have gotten more out of the midfield)

PS. Did the lampard, meireles midfield remind anyone else of a poor man’s lampard/gerrard midfield that has always worked so well? I love lamps but he doesn’t do well playing with such a similar player.

by b8b8j on Dec 19, 2011 6:57 PM GMT reply actions  

And at the point of the Sturridge substitution you ahve to argue a 5.7x impact

I mean, it’s entirely possible that you can manage that, but I’m not feeling it.

by Graham MacAree on Dec 19, 2011 7:01 PM GMT up reply actions  

And furthermore there's basically no way you can say that introducing Torres adds defensive value

Certainly, Torres provides some defensive value, but you have to replace someone else who provides more to introduce him

by Graham MacAree on Dec 19, 2011 7:03 PM GMT up reply actions  

But if I'm reading this correctly that 5.7 is saying

Sturridge is a 100% impact offensively and not contribute at all defensively and the opposite with someone like Mikel. We just can’t look at it like that, removing both mata and sturridge encouraged Wigan to make the change and bring on 2 forwards removing a forward and a striker without a real risk of repercussion (in the form of a counter attack). It also caused lampard to push further forward lessening his defensive impact (i.e. we can’t look on a player by player basis)

The Wigan defense was no longer stretched (sorry but drogba is too slow to get behind a defense these days) and it became more difficult to find outlets and posses the ball

I’m not saying bringing on a defensive midfielder was the wrong thing to do by any means, just that a combination of Drogba/Kalouda to counter attack probably isn’t sufficient (lack of pace from drogba/malouda, lack of match sharpness for kalou to say the least). I don’t think it ever makes sense to go into a shell without at least the threat of a counter, you’re inviting numbers forward

by b8b8j on Dec 19, 2011 8:08 PM GMT up reply actions  

On a side note

I wrote my thesis in machine learning, particularly artificial neural networks and hidden markov models for prediction. I’d love to get my hands on positional + possession data to analyze it if anyone has any ideas (ideally with Chelsea for obvious reasons)

by b8b8j on Dec 19, 2011 8:10 PM GMT up reply actions  

Football needs a markov-based game state

I’ve been trying to get my hands on player/ball positioning data for a while so as to work on something like this for a proper player valuation metric, but so far nothing doing.

by Graham MacAree on Dec 19, 2011 8:39 PM GMT up reply actions  

No, the framework still holds

You’re making a much more subtle argument here, which is one I can accept – that the substitutions Villas-Boas made did not in fact help defensively. That’s valid to a certain extent, although I trust Kalou on the counterattack far more than you do.

Ideally you look at this as the capabilities of one Chelsea lineup vs. another Chelsea lineup, using the substitutes as a shorthand.

by Graham MacAree on Dec 19, 2011 8:15 PM GMT up reply actions  

Hmm

I am part of the Torres-needs-to-play-more crowd… but not just for the heck of it. I like to apply a little reason to my wish to see him play (other than wanting some eye candy on my television)… and in this game, I am not sure he’d have been a suitable substitution.

The strange part to me was more that, against Wigan (not to diminish them), we opted to defend the one goal lead, instead of continuing to have at it. I am not convinced that Wigan would have been able to maintain their same tactics after the goal, and they did start to push forward more, which I was hoping we’d take advantage of in the attack. It isn’t a flawed set of tactics, but a puzzling one, being that it isn’t really what AVB has touted as the kind of football he wants to play.

I do, however, appreciate his bending to the situation sometimes… just wish we did this against the Valencias of the world, and decided to go out and clobber the Wigans. We probably should have had a 1 goal lead in the first ten minutes, but given the players didn’t really execute, I suppose we did what we could.

by alynne4307 on Dec 19, 2011 6:58 PM GMT reply actions  

At some point, you have to start giving him quality minutes, situation and form notwithstanding

Not just cameo appearances at the end of the game when the rest of the team had checked out already.

Drogba is good now, but he’s not the future of this team. I don’t think anyone believes that. And if giving him minutes is perceived as a “risk” or at the very last something that will take time before it really starts working, we’re not going to do it in games like Newcastle, Valencia, and Man City. The best time to do it is against someone like Wigan.

Playing Drogba this much is incredibly short-sighted. Unless we’re indeed selling Torres in January, in which case we’re just wasting time until some other younger top striker comes in, and let Drogba have at it for now. But there’s a 0% chance that Drogba is a sustainable plan for the long term.

by FootieFromAfar on Dec 19, 2011 7:28 PM GMT via mobile up reply actions  

I don't fully disagree

That is one of my main reasons for wanting to see him get some time. I don’t think he would have been a good “sub” for this match, but I also expected him to actually start it. Had it not worked, we could have pulled him. It wasn’t because I felt he was suited or anything though, more that I felt that Wigan posed a lesser threat and we were on a good run, so giving Torres a little time wouldn’t have hurt.

But once the game got going, I don’t think he could have had as much influence. I hope that this didn’t damper Didier’s progress either, as I imagine he’ll be playing the Spurs and I’d like him heading out with full confidence.

by alynne4307 on Dec 19, 2011 7:32 PM GMT up reply actions  

I'd argue that the future CF for this team is nearly a Drogba clone

Playing Drogba will likely make that transition a little easier, but I do agree that it would be nice to see Torres get a little more time.

by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 19, 2011 7:40 PM GMT up reply actions  

Can't see it happening in January, but a summer move certainly seems possible.

I was referring to the giant puppy playing in the reserves at the moment, and I think he’ll have some chances this spring to impress ahead of any potential moves this summer. If we do decide to offload Torres this summer, I could easily see him being shipped to Atletico with some cash for Falcao. It just makes too much sense for every party involved, I can’t believe the tabloids haven’t “thought” that one up yet.

by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 19, 2011 8:25 PM GMT up reply actions  

Lukaku is still so very far away from being first XI ready

We need someone in between. Also, quick passing and possession play seems more suited to someone who gets into space begin defenders than someone who plays like Drogba, I think. He’s more of the “boot it up the field and forget about it” type.

by FootieFromAfar on Dec 20, 2011 6:04 AM GMT via mobile up reply actions  

I wonder how much Falcao would really cost

apparently he is owned by a third party and would have to be bought out, in addition to any transfer fees. Not impossible, I just wonder if there is any sort of ridiculous fee thing happening there that prevents him from going to England sooner rather than later.

by alynne4307 on Dec 20, 2011 4:02 PM GMT up reply actions  

I don't see Drogba as a long term choice

however currently at this point I’m not so sure if Torres is. It’s so early. If this situation we have with him now currently continues I’m actually inclined to say it would make no sense keeping him here, both for us ad him. It just doesn’t make any sense. As it doesn’t make any sense paying a huge fee for a player and then leaving him on the bench.

I want Torres to succeed at Chelsea, but not to the point when it becomes clear it would never be. If AVB decides to leave him out again and again in the second period of the season it would mean nothing more and less that Torres has no future in this team. So that’s basically why I said it’s a little bit early to reach a verdict now, though of course we have the signs AVB wouldn’t want to play Torres if he could go with Drogba. BUt that could change immediately at any time.

What I certainly wish is – that he at least gets a fair chance before the final termination. I don’t think it’s OK to say now that he’s finally over with it. He had the chance at the beginning of the season and he fluffed it. Now I wish he could get the chance again to redeem himself, some games in a row to prove his point. If he doesn’t get the chance – get rid of him asap, and don’t waste time and find another capable striker, or try moving Studge into the middle until Lukaku is ready, and develop him.

Tor ilisar'thera'nal!

by Maiev on Dec 19, 2011 11:17 PM GMT up reply actions  

I don't think he fluffed it

Four goals and three assists is not fluffing it. He was in the top three for both goals and assists on the team when Drogba all of a sudden starting getting all these games. He wasn’t the best striker in the league, by any means, but I certainly wouldn’t say he was fluffing it either.

Yes, the two red-cards were stupid. But he was also getting very much into form.

by FootieFromAfar on Dec 20, 2011 12:34 AM GMT up reply actions  

He fluffed it because he got that damn red card

and then couldn’t play consecutive matches. He had some good runs in between, but destroyed some of the momentum

Tor ilisar'thera'nal!

by Maiev on Dec 20, 2011 10:06 AM GMT up reply actions  

He played poorly in the Premiership when his ban was done

but the whole team was playing pretty poorly at that point. He put in a couple of good performances in the CL during this time, though and the momentum wasn’t all lost… but the mood of the team had changed when his ban was over.

I suppose I don’t think it was the red card and bans… to me it was the re-entering a PL team that now required the striker to be on point because they were in a negative run, whereas before they were playing and winning with a little more ease. In the PL games, he wasn’t on point, and so Drogba was given his chance and he has been either getting stronger or staying level. Drogba is simply the safe bet at the moment. Until the team can perform and win consistently, we may not see AVB take the risk in putting Torres on to get him back into form.

by alynne4307 on Dec 20, 2011 4:09 PM GMT up reply actions  

Alright, I'm sold

I didn’t like the substitutions at the time, and we didn’t get the result I wanted (anyone wanted, really), but I won’t argue with numbers like these. As always, statistics wins out over “I got a bad feeling about this… DAMNIT!”

by FootieFromAfar on Dec 19, 2011 7:19 PM GMT via mobile reply actions  

Damn

I really wish those talks about trading Torres for Villa are true. I’m sick of him and his supporters…

About the subs: I’ve seen how Wigan were particularly dangerous at their attacks in the second half, and how solid they were defending. After our first goal, anyone would’ve brought a player to reinforce the defense, and that’s what AvB did. Now, it’s football, and with the help of a lack of effort, anything could happen.

1970 - 1984 - 2010

"Ignorant people are easier to control"

by trOOly on Dec 19, 2011 7:20 PM GMT reply actions  

Villa is too old and too many times injured

We can’t be putting our future in the hands of someone like that. We need a top striker who is 22-28 and class, not someone who is in their 30s. Torres could potentially be that, if he can find his form, or someone else young. But not Villa.

by FootieFromAfar on Dec 19, 2011 7:31 PM GMT via mobile up reply actions  

I want to differentiate

I’m sick of Torres’ supporters who claim to support Chelsea, but who actually only support Chelsea because Torres happens to play for Chelsea, and who re likely to turn the “Chelsea ruined Torres” into a “Chelsea vs. Torres” thing.

Tor ilisar'thera'nal!

by Maiev on Dec 19, 2011 11:08 PM GMT up reply actions  

It occurs to me

that people here probably think I am that type. Let me clarify just in case anyone that reads my comments may ever misunderstand… Torres went to Chelsea in January 2011… I didn’t care for Chelsea’s playing style much before then, or after… not until AVB and Mata.

So I support Chelsea mostly because of them and some proposed dream of football I hope to come of it. I may be investing in a lost cause, but I’d like to hope not. I guess that makes me a plastic fan, sure… so be it :) You become a fan one way or another. I also thought that Chelsea had some more reasonable and logical fans… observing actual, long-time fans has been interesting, though… especially during the losses or disappointments. Makes me wonder what it is like for folks that are new to sports and teams that I’ve grown up watching.

by alynne4307 on Dec 20, 2011 12:17 AM GMT up reply actions  

Most of all supporters visiting this site regularly are pretty much plastics

if you’d ask local London supporters. We don’t attend games at SB every other week. We don’t break the bank to travel to Moscow. Our grandparents probably didn’t support Chelsea. So by some definition of the local London supporters, we’re not even worth supporting the club – even if you did start supporting Chelsea BEFORE the Abramovich era (like me, and many other fans from abroad). Does that really matter? Is that really important? Alas. It’s open to everyone.

I don’t think you are one of those fans I described above, since wanting Torres to get more game time doesn’t necessarily mean you want Torres to play without more reason to it. I was referring to people who say Torres needs to play without accepting (good) reasons why

Tor ilisar'thera'nal!

by Maiev on Dec 20, 2011 10:16 AM GMT up reply actions  

It really is a sorry state of affairs

When people feel the need to pass judgement on the value of support that a person is willing or able to provide.

Even as a Londoner and former season ticket holder (had to give it up for financial reasons) I find myself getting funny looks when I tell people I’m a Chelsea fan because apparently the only reason I could possibly like them is that they have a lot of money.

My opinion is that if people are willing to take time out of their lives to watch the games, then we should be grateful to be reaching a wider audience rather than trying to send them packing.

by deg0ey on Dec 20, 2011 11:51 AM GMT up reply actions  

Opun second re-read

it seemed I wanted to attack all London supporters. This is definitively not my intention, and I definitively didn’t wanna include you or anyone else specifically within this group I mentioned before. I believe there’s only a minority of local supporters with extreme foreign-supporters-hating, but as the rule of the internet – the minority is often perceived the majority because they are the loudest.

It happened to me I was flamed 4-5 years ago by a Londoner (via the internet) who told me the only supporter worth supporting Chelsea (whatever that means, I didn’t understand it till now) was the season-ticket holder, traveling regularly to away-games, even far across the continent for CL games, born in a family that had been supporting Chelsea for generations as a tradition of the family. Everyone else should f*ck off and go support their local clubs, because obviously we, the fans nor worth supporting Chelsea, are ruining the club

Back then I was baffled by this statement and I keep being baffled till today :D

Tor ilisar'thera'nal!

by Maiev on Dec 20, 2011 12:23 PM GMT up reply actions  

/upon

Tor ilisar'thera'nal!

by Maiev on Dec 20, 2011 12:23 PM GMT up reply actions  

Oh no, I didn't think you were attacking all local supporters at all

Was just weighing in that they don’t just target foreigners.

by deg0ey on Dec 20, 2011 12:40 PM GMT up reply actions  

Exactly

Fans come in all different forms, and that kind of diversity is probably a good thing. Even if we can all drive each other mad sometimes :) At least, for the most part, we can all celebrate together when good things happen.

It isn’t just with Chelsea or anything either… even sports teams I have followed most of my life I find myself having to “justify” my fandom to others. And I’ve probably done so to others, too (more so with fans of music than sports). It is pretty silly though when we step back and think about it.

by alynne4307 on Dec 20, 2011 4:17 PM GMT up reply actions  

I disagree

There are times when certain statistics don’t tell the whole story, and I think this is one of those times. Preventing a goal was clearly the optimal outcome, and in that sense I understand what AVB was thinking with the substitutions. But, Chelsea has given up an average of 1.2 goals in EPL matches. And, we have seen late goals conceded much too frequently (Valencia away, Liverpool, Genk away, Bayer away), often from glaring individual errors. I think those two facts are enough to allow a reasonable person to question AVB’s decision to bring off Mata and Sturridge.

Obviously, a reasonable person could also conclude that Chelsea’s poor late game defense this season was further reason for AVB to make defensive changes late in the game. But I don’t see how some people calling for Torres to be brought on late takes away from the validity of other people questioning the decision to bring off both Mata and Danny.

by hornalum08 on Dec 19, 2011 7:29 PM GMT reply actions  

Statistics aren't telling you the whole story here

They’re providing a framework within which you must operate. Unless you are in fact arguing that your idea substitutions are 3.6 and 5.7x as impactful as on the attack as the ones Villas-Boas made defensively, your argument is invalid. Is it possible to argue that leaving Sturridge and Mata in was that important? Sure. But I don’t think it’s easy.

by Graham MacAree on Dec 19, 2011 7:34 PM GMT up reply actions  

I respectfully disagree.

I am not arguing with the validity of the statistical analysis. I am just saying that i would have preferred to see Mata and Sturridge stay on the pitch, as I was not comfortable with a 1-0 lead. And i took issue with using the statistical analysis to argue that anyone disagreeing with AVB’s decisions must be wrong (or at least irrational).

It is just two different ways at looking at the game- trust the statistics or trust your gut? For teams that i have watched closely enough, i tend to go with my gut, rather than the moneyball approach. That doesnt mean everyone has to do the same.

I appreciate your insight and the discussion.

by hornalum08 on Dec 19, 2011 8:23 PM GMT via mobile up reply actions  

Moneyball was not about statistics versus your gut

Moneyball was about exploiting any inefficiency in the market to your advantage. It’s a real pet peave of mine when people cite the moneyball approach as being about statistical analysis…it isn’t.

by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 19, 2011 8:29 PM GMT up reply actions  

To an extent

Some of it was statistical analysis (recognition that OBP as a better predictor of wins)

by b8b8j on Dec 19, 2011 8:31 PM GMT up reply actions  

That was a specific market inefficiency, but not the concept

The entire concept behind the “moneyball” approach is to identify an area in which people are not evaluating talent properly and then exploit it. The book did use walk rate as an example of something that most teams were undervaluing, but statistical analysis versus traditional scouting is not the idea behind the book.

by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 19, 2011 8:35 PM GMT up reply actions  

I'd agree but the process in identifying the market inefficiency

was statistical. Also i can see why someone would argue that it is moneyball vs. gut feelings in that many teams evaluated players on their looks. So while you can argue that it’s not about statistics vs. your gut feeling, it is definitely about not trusting your initial gut feeling.

A quote from Billy Beane via Wikipedia
“It’s all about evaluating skills and putting a price on them. Thirty years ago, stockbrokers used to buy stock strictly by feel. Let’s put it this way: Anyone in the game with a 401(k) (a retirement savings account) has a choice. They can choose a fund manager who manages their retirement by gut instinct, or one who chooses by research and analysis. I know which way I’d choose.”

by b8b8j on Dec 19, 2011 11:10 PM GMT up reply actions  

That's not really correct either

The A’s looked at things like OBP and slugging percentage while evaluating hitting prospects, but their decision making on pitching prospects was largely biomechanical and very rarely about statisical analysis. Hudson, Mulder, and Zito were probably the three biggest success stories of that A’s era, and those three were drafted based on mechanical evaluations by Rick Peterson much more than statistical analysis. Statistical analysis was a part of moneyball, but the concept of evaluating market inefficiencies was not tied to statistical analysis. The moneyball concept was very simple, the A’s tried to identify things that other teams were missing and exploit that so that they could compete with teams that could triple their payroll. Some statistical analysis was involved, but it wasn’t the only method which the A’s used to identify undervalued assets.

by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 20, 2011 12:05 AM GMT up reply actions  

To expand on that, moneyball is not by any means implying that teams were drafting and signing players based on a "gut instinct"

Every team was doing massive amounts of scouting of these players, and all of them were looking at the same things. What the A’s did try to identify things to look for that other clubs were missing, they studied everything from risk assessment of high schoolers versus college players, to walk rates, to injury factors in pitchers. A common misconception about the book is that the A’s were the only team that looked at statistics, while every other team was going on their “gut”. That just isn’t true, many other teams were spending massive amounts of money in preparation for the draft and free agency. Nobody (with the possible exception of Omar Minaya) was making decisions based on their “gut”.

by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 20, 2011 12:39 AM GMT up reply actions  

That isn't what I'm saying

Argue from your gut all you like. I’m not invalidating criticism of Andre Villas-Boas’s moves based on statistics, I am demonstrating the context in which they must be seen in order to have an objective argument about it. Is it possible that they were wrong despite the above analysis. Certainly. I’m skeptical but open to that possibility.

As for statistics vs. gut, my gut is just doing approximations of statistics anyway. Sometimes it’s better at it than my brain, but hey.

by Graham MacAree on Dec 19, 2011 8:37 PM GMT up reply actions  

Might there be something....

…..to the idea that Chelsea just might not be very good utilizing more defensive formations? Have the statistics been broken down by formation used? It isn’t as though Chelsea has given up many goals the past few years using its customary attacking formations, and then all of a sudden become the world’s most efficient bus when switching to defensive formations. In order for those statistics to work, it seems to me at first glance that Chelsea would have to be as efficient with the experience, strategy and personnel used in the defensive formations as they are in the standard ones.

by ososdeoro on Dec 19, 2011 9:43 PM GMT up reply actions  

The statistics hold true no matter what

What you’re questioning is the efficacy of the defensive switch – i.e. how much better at defending and how much they lose in the attack Chelsea get when making a defensive change. That’s an entirely different question, and one that’s up in the air.

by Graham MacAree on Dec 19, 2011 9:47 PM GMT up reply actions  

Your last line

is the statement that I’d like to highlight.

Why is it that people are confusing those two sentiments? It seems to me that all the commentator talk of Torres throughout the match is getting somewhat confused with fan reaction. Not to say there weren’t people shouting for his sub-in in the game thread, but I feel like that wasn’t all the same as people criticizing or having doubts about the substitutions in general.

I can already think of a couple of people in the “Torres supporters that everyone on WAGNH apparently hates with great vitriol” that specifically didn’t call for his substitution… and yet folks just hate them anyway- ha. And somehow people who just disagreed with subbing out Mata and Sturridge are now in the group of people that must have wanted Torres in.

To be honest, I saw a lot of talk about Torres (generally commenting on how they wished people stopped talking about him) coming from the very people that wished people would stop talking about him. Kind of ironic, if you ask me :)

by alynne4307 on Dec 19, 2011 7:59 PM GMT up reply actions  

It was funny, most of the Torres-talk in the Wigan GameThread was from the anti-Torres...

…folks. At the beginning, there were a lot of us who were surprised that we played the same team, which included Drogba over Torres, but afterwards, most of the Torres discussion was from people against him, or more accurately, against those who are generally for him. I recognised pretty early that this was not a Fernando game.

Author and Official Fernando Torres Apologist for We Ain't Got No History!

by Kevin Kostka on Dec 20, 2011 12:58 AM GMT up reply actions  

I look forward to a day

when there is no excessive Torres talk from commentators or fans that neglects the entire remainder of the team actually playing, no anti-Torres and pro-Torres (from the same team’s fans, at least), no Torres-Drogba-who’s-gonna-start talk, and no more articles talking about selling him or him being a flop and whatever.

Not because I feel bad for him, but more because it would save us all this hullabaloo! :)

Now if only I had some really good highlights from the game the other day to discuss ;) PS- everyone… I choose to blame Mata and Drogba’s new shoes for the performance. Apparently that is what happens when you switch from day-glo yellow/green to purple.

by alynne4307 on Dec 20, 2011 4:26 AM GMT up reply actions  

I think part of the reason so many fans talk about Fernando,...

…[ and I don’t mean those like me who just like him,] is that so many people outside the Chelsea community define Chelsea by Torres. It’s the only thing they want to talk about, and Chelsea people have to talk about it too, so it gets stuck in the mind.

At the end of the day, though, there’s no good way to set a level of what an excessive amount of Torres-talk is. He’s a star, and people are going to want to talk about him. Also, he’s a Chelsea player, so Chelsea fans are going to talk about him and his role in the team. I compare it to the Ivanovic/Bosingwa debates, except nobody is nearly as emotional about right backs. I think a lot of people forget that the decision to play one striker or another is both a game-by-game decision, and not a personal one. There are days I actually wish we would sell him, so those people for whom Torres is a tribal issue wouldn’t have anything to fight about. [I know I’ve said before that I’m on Team Torres, but I’m really not. I think ignoring either Drogba or Torres is foolish.]

Author and Official Fernando Torres Apologist for We Ain't Got No History!

by Kevin Kostka on Dec 20, 2011 5:51 AM GMT up reply actions  

I'm feel sad

that whenever we talk about Drogba or Torres, it turns automatically, somewhat easily, into a Drogba/Torres debate. Somehow it seems praise for Drogba can be so easily understood as Torres bashing and vice versa. When we see a game with Drogba performing well, there will be reactions from both fans and journos “what’s Torres future”, when Torres plays well the camera will pan on Drogba’s face “of he’d sign the contract”. That’s just so wrong.

Tor ilisar'thera'nal!

by Maiev on Dec 20, 2011 10:28 AM GMT up reply actions  

I agree with both of you above

what I meant to suggest in my post is that, through one way or another, I think this will eventually happen. So I do actually look forward to it. Either Torres gets sold and the talk about him and Chelsea dies down, or he stays because he starts performing and any talk about it is that he and the team are doing well.

I do think that the media focus much too much on him, but as Graham might say… it is part of their narrative. Actually… it is an all too familiar narrative (the classic Greek tragedy).

In a natural sense, talk of Drogba v. Torres is sort of a discussion about the overall playing style of Chelsea’s future. So I can see people having some lengthy discussion on this. But we ought to do well to turn that into a debate about playing style and suited players for the job, versus 2 specific players. I hope it eventually turns into that, and that if either player stays for the team, that they can accommodate whatever the playing style is.

by alynne4307 on Dec 20, 2011 4:23 PM GMT up reply actions  

It's especially foolish when you realise a Torres-type and...

…Drogba-type team aren’t really mutually exclusive.

Author and Official Fernando Torres Apologist for We Ain't Got No History!

by Kevin Kostka on Dec 20, 2011 4:51 PM GMT up reply actions  

I can't imagine the talk will die down anytime sooner

if Drogba and Torres both stay at Chelsea. If Drogba leaves and Torres stays, it will die down for a while, but then if Chelsea get the new backup striker (a role in which I think Drogba could perform well if he considers it) and Torres fails performing then the talk would start again, only with other protagonists. If Torres leaves and Drogba stays then Drogba will not be considered as first option for the CF spot, and either a new striker will come in and compete, or if Sturridge moves inside it would be Studge vs. Drogs … with the only difference that amusingly, Sturridge and Drogba seem to be regarded “in the same camp” whilst Torres and Drogba do not. I find that amusing

Tor ilisar'thera'nal!

by Maiev on Dec 21, 2011 11:26 AM GMT up reply actions  

My only issue

with 2 of the substitutions was who was taken off. The Kalou for Romeu sub made a great deal of sense. We did need Mikel to come in after we took the 1-0 lead because our defensive frailties in midfield were apparent. However, Meireles, Drogba and Lamps were pants, and I thought one of them should’ve come off for Mikel, but I did see the wisdom in what AVB was trying to do. Taking Sturridge off was the substitution that with which I really didn’t agree. Malouda offers us very little even in a defensive sense. This also left us without any real attacking threat with Mata gone as well, should Wigan equalize. Wigan was looking increasingly threatening after they decided to take the bus on the road and out of the car park. We ended up putting all our eggs in one basket.

Alas, I can see both sides of the coin in the aforementioned situations. I think it’s absurd that some Chelsea supporters are attacking AVB with such venom. He was tactically conservative. My druthers would have been not to sacrifice both of our best attacking players and kept at least one on, but then again I don’t have a Russian oligarch offering 13m quid to my current employer to release me and come to manage one of the top teams in club football.

by deco and the bunnymen on Dec 19, 2011 8:05 PM GMT reply actions  

Indeed!

Basically, I think it’s entirely possible to argue that Villas-Boas made some poor decisions with his substitutions at the individual player level – I was shocked Meireles didn’t go off for Mikel, for example. Strategically and tactically, he made some sensible decisions, and he’s getting abused for those rather than for the more interesting points.

by Graham MacAree on Dec 19, 2011 8:17 PM GMT up reply actions  

Agreed

I think a lot of the venom just comes from the fact that most of the fan base thought we had fully turned around and expected an easy victory. The problem stems from Drogba/ Meireles and Lampard playing poorly. Sturridge/Mata is usually the easy position to remove from to introduce defensive stability but based on their poor performances I would have liked to see one of the others.

by b8b8j on Dec 19, 2011 8:26 PM GMT up reply actions  

But when you include the Spurs game, removing Mata and Sturridge early becomes...

…much more sensible. I think there is an argument for not having picked the ostensible first team in the first place, but that’s a matter of opinion. Once the game begins with that line-up, knowing there’s a big game in less than a week, everything is sensible.

Author and Official Fernando Torres Apologist for We Ain't Got No History!

by Kevin Kostka on Dec 20, 2011 1:07 AM GMT up reply actions  

I thought I had heard somewhere a game or two ago that AVB is the only Prem manager to have used ALL his subs in ALL his matches

If I were to pick at anything, this would be the issue. Or maybe just hold off on the last sub.

While Malouda is a defensive upgrade over Sturridge…it is only by the slimmest of margins (especially after Danny’s improvements). In perhaps in a bout of overmanagement, this substitution was made 9 minutes too soon (this one “should’ve” been a time-wasting sub in like the 90th minute).

by DPeezy on Dec 19, 2011 11:51 PM GMT up reply actions  

You heard correctly

I am not even picking at AVB for this game, because clearly the players didn’t perform- any gripes I hold are mostly with them. But I did find the sub and choice of replacement for Sturridge a curiosity. Mata I could see, I guess, but even then I would have probably subbed Mikel in for Lampard or Meireles, and left Sturridge on (for at least a bit longer). Maybe it’s just his supposed love for rotation?

by alynne4307 on Dec 20, 2011 12:00 AM GMT up reply actions  

The real issue is...

That the most obvious defensive change, that being to introduce Ferreira (or a traffic cone, or anything) for Bosingwa was not made. Bosingwa was fully responsible for the Wigan goal. He was caught upfield before the pass out to the wing, was still trying to recover when his man received the ball, then got turned around and bypasses as if he wasn’t there. He’s a gross liability and has no business being anywhere near this team. We need to play Paulo for now and buy a capable RB in January if we don’t want to ship goals like this.

by dele on Dec 19, 2011 10:05 PM GMT reply actions  

I disagree....

…..I think Bosingwa was great in this game. I like Paulo (one of the few who seems to), but he’s fully capable of getting caught exactly the way you say Bosingwa was. And I haven’t been a Bosingwa fan at all for much of this season or last, but I thought he was almost MOTM over the weekend.

Anyway, I’m not certain that it was Bosingwa’s responsibility to make the play if in fact he was up the field. Obviously he’s supposed to if he can, and there are multiple examples of that happening by him in that game, but others seemed more at fault to me on the scoring play…sorray.

by ososdeoro on Dec 19, 2011 11:30 PM GMT up reply actions  

I never noticed

that those whose were most strong on advocating AVB got his substitutions wrong were also the ones who were also in the Torres-needs-to-play-crowd. I have to observe this more in Chelsea communities, as I didn’t pay much attention to it. It would make sense though for the game thread on WAGNH at least, since it turned out to be a Kalouda vs. Torres thing, although it was very hard to grasp what one thing had to do with the other.

It would also be valid for the commentating front who said straight away after Malouda came on that “this means there would be no minutes for Torres”. Think, it’s not they were talking about if the Malouda substitution made any sense concerning the game and the result itself. They were just pointing out the Malouda sub meant Torres would get no minute in this one. At that stage of the game when Malouda came on, it would have made as much sense as it would have made to say “Malouda came on – so Turmbull would see no game minutes.”

Tor ilisar'thera'nal!

by Maiev on Dec 19, 2011 11:04 PM GMT reply actions  

Bosingwa

It’s interesting, Bosingwa seems to get a lot more love here than on some of the other sites I read. Elsewhere on the internet there’s near unanimous agreement that he’s having an awful season and has been responsible for a good number of the goals we’ve conceded.

With regard to being further up the pitch on the Wigan goal, I’m convinced that it’s the responsibility of the RB to mark his winger when you’ve got a one goal lead in the 88th minute, and that failure to do that is pretty unforgivable. We didn’t need Bosingwa to be attacking or pressing high in that instance. All he had to do was mark his man. If he had Chelsea would have had the three points.

by dele on Dec 20, 2011 12:55 AM GMT reply actions  

I don't know, I'm pretty anti-Bosingwa, if you want to call it that

I think there’s a willingness here to argue from evidence rather than go with what we already believe. I thought Bosingwa had a good first half and then a pretty poor second, but blame for the goal mostly rests with Petr Cech

by Graham MacAree on Dec 20, 2011 1:42 AM GMT up reply actions  

I think there's an argument that Wigan should never have been in a position...

…to induce an error, Cech was definitely the biggest factor in the goal. Of all our players, I think Bosingwa’s one of the least easy players to blame for our problems against Wigan…

Actually, never mind…

It was David Luiz’ fault!

Author and Official Fernando Torres Apologist for We Ain't Got No History!

by Kevin Kostka on Dec 20, 2011 1:50 AM GMT up reply actions  

As the official Torres apologist for this blog...

…I have to say I never supported bringing him on against Wigan for two reasons. Firstly, Fernando is rarely the answer off the bench. Secondly, this was not a game where any striker, much less one who thrives on playing in behind the defence, would have of any effect. Wigan were ultra-deep in defence, and only came out when needing a goal. Even when they came out, it’s not like they leaving us loads of room at the back.

Basically, Wigan played a nearly-perfect game against a big side, and AVB was nearly perfect in countering it, given the resources available to him. Our players could have been better, yes, but it was really one moment of lost concentration by Petr Cech that hurt us.

Author and Official Fernando Torres Apologist for We Ain't Got No History!

by Kevin Kostka on Dec 20, 2011 1:21 AM GMT reply actions  

Taking off forwards and putting in defenders invites the other team to have a go at you, while at

the same time denying you the ability to counter effectively. This would be no problem if our team wasn’t prone to conceding late, but that’s not the case.

I can see why AVB would did what he did, he doesn’t know the future, but it was tempting fate a little bit.

That said, I didn’t fully understand your science there.

by Valens on Dec 20, 2011 3:38 AM GMT reply actions  

Remember, Wigan were playing an ultra-deep defence.

We needed then to come at us. Nine times out of ten, nothing bad happens, but occasionally, it backfires.

Author and Official Fernando Torres Apologist for We Ain't Got No History!

by Kevin Kostka on Dec 20, 2011 4:15 AM GMT up reply actions  

The team is obviously more important than any one player

That’s why when Drogba tried to take the pen from Lampard in the last game of the double season, I was mad at him, even though he was one of my favorite players.

It’s not “Keep the Torres Flag Flying High”. Nor will it ever be. I just think that, in the long run, it’s in Chelsea’s best interest to play Torres into form. And they’re not even remotely trying to do that right now.

by FootieFromAfar on Dec 20, 2011 6:08 AM GMT via mobile reply actions  

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